Impact of Carbon Trading Schemes on Mangrove Forest Ecosystem Services and Household Welfare: Evidence from East African Coastal Communities

The main problem facing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa is reducing poverty and conserving forest ecosystem services among rural households. Achieving this dual objective has been a problem for policymakers especially in ensuring gender and distributional equity in accessing the benefits. The study, therefore, seeks to assess the impact of a unique carbon trading scheme on mangrove ecosystem conservation and household welfare among Kenyan and Tanzanian coastal communities that are dependent on mangrove ecosystem services for their livelihood. The study adopts an empirical strategy based on a quasi-experimental approach mainly the endogenous switching regression model and the quantile treatment effects model using cross-sectional data collected from a sample of 900 households to address the following research questions: What determines the household decision to participate in carbon trading scheme? What is the overall impact of carbon trading on mangrove forest conservation and related ecosystem services and household welfare? What is the gender-disaggregated and distributional impact of carbon trading on household welfare?   We expect that carbon credit schemes could improve conservation of mangrove forests and associated ecosystem services as well as improve household welfare but there could be gender differential impact and distributional inequity that may compromise the success of the scheme.