Marine protected areas are currently recognized as an alternative for the conservation of marine ecosystems. Although the protection reduces the area available for fishing, it has been argued that the spillover effect can increase resources in the adjoining areas. The purpose of this study is to calculate the value of the provision of fishing resources resulting from an increase in the system of marine protected areas in Colombia.

System Dynamics models require calibration as part of the validation process. The available software tools only include one of the methods available for this end. But, the nature of this process requires sensitivity not only within a method, but with different methods. This study tests the effects of four optimisers (Genetic Algorithms, Simulated Annealing, Powell’s Algorithm, and a hybrid algorithm) in the calibration process of two system dynamics models.

Seawater Air Conditioning (SWAC) is a sustainable alternative for tropical islands. Despite its potential, adoption has been limited throughout the world. There is a need to understand SWAC adoption potential in the Caribbean and to identify the actions and policies that could favor its diffusion. We develop a system dynamics simulation model for SWAC adoption, and use it to simulate scenarios and incentives for SWAC in Jamaica. We found that SWAC adoption is mainly limited by the threshold capacity necessary for the first installation.

Crude oil exports and imports play a crucial role in the trade balance of Peru, Colombia and Ecuador. These countries are looking into fossil fuel saving measures as a way to deal with increasing demands and decreasing oil production rates. However, studies about the long-term effects of these measures is lacking.

This simulation study analyzes the effect of the introduction of forward markets to mitigate cyclical price behavior in electricity markets from a dynamic extended Cobweb model. We pay particular attention to the effect of lags in investment decisions and the effect of not fully replacing retired capacity in electricity markets. In line with previous research, the introduction of forward markets decreases price variability in comparison to a spot market.

Este documento analiza la incidencia de la política climática internacional en la planeación y el desarrollo del sistema eléctrico de Colombia. Particularmente, estudia las implicaciones que tendría el cumplimiento de las contribuciones nacionalmente determinadas (NDC) presentadas en el Acuerdo de Paris sobre el Sistema Interconectado Nacional.

Identifying the spatial patterns and drivers of deforestation is a critical task in geographic research. In addition to mapping deforestation, it’s important to determine the statistical effects of the spatial configuration of tropical landscapes on current deforestation trends. In order to model drivers of deforestation is important to take into account the spatial structure of data (i.e., whether observed deforestation is spatially clustered or not).

Latin America exhibits one of the highest rates of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) loss worldwide along with a remarkable asymmetry in the access to ES benefits (ecosystem services inequality, ESI hereafter). The objective of this manuscript is to propose and validate a conceptual model to understand the links between ESI and ecosystem services supply. First, previous ES frameworks were expanded to acknowledge the role of the unequal access to ES on socio-ecological system dynamics.