This study presents findings from a systematic comparative research effort to investigate the additionality claims of CDM afforestation projects in Tanzania, Uganda and Moldova.
Using what we refer to as an ex-post comparative baseline approach that accounts for how project financing and background economic conditions evolve over a CDM project’s implementation and crediting periods, we demonstrate that the projects in Uganda and Moldova are very likely to be fully additional while only approximately one-quarter of carbon credits resulting from the Tanzania project are genuine.