Large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) is a successful tool for forecasting macroeconomic variables, but the benefits to predict crude oil prices are rarely discussed. In this paper, we test the ability of BVAR to predict the real price of crude oil using a large dataset with 108 variables, taking into account all potential error structures that could affect modeling and forecasting, and performing multivariate analysis of crude oil prices, filling in the gaps in the field.

Key Points

This policy brief emphasizes the urgent need to address the gender gap in skilling through targeted interventions. By improving access, quality, and awareness of skilling programs, we can empower women and create a more equitable workforce.

Abstract

Many firms hire workers via social networks. Whether workers who are socially connected to their employers exert more effort on the job is an unsettled debate.

Key Messages

• Overall, the NFPP has a moderately positive effect on forest cover in the program areas.

• The NFPP has a greater positive effect on forests held by village households than state-owned forests.

• The NFPP might achieve enhanced performance by (re)directing larger proportions of the program’s funds and forest restoration activities toward village forest managers.

Abstract