Using household surveys and spatial geographic data, we are able to control for socioeconomic and geographic characteristics at the individual and census-tract levels. Our results suggest that while payments did not affect poverty rates at the national level, poverty did increase in places where PES had the greatest effect on deforestation. This effect is stronger for uneducated males, who tend to work in agricultural activities.

Profound economic, ethnic, and social inequalities are exacerbated by climate change. High levels of widespread poverty, weak water governance, unequal access to safe water and sanitation services, and lack of infrastructure and financing reduce adaptation capacity, increasing and creating new population vulnerabilities.