Bayesian analysis of demand for urban green space: A contingent valuation of developing a new urban park

Recreational opportunities and amenities are important human-use services generated by urban open spaces. However, empirical evidences on the magnitude of monetary values of these services are hardly available, in fact anecdotal if any, in developing countries. In this research, using contingent valuation methods (CVM), we estimated the recreational value of developing urban park in Kampala city. Our CVM scenario involved development of Nakivubo wetland from its current degraded state into urban park to provide new outdoor recreation alternative. We applied Bayesian approaches with informative prior to a single-bounded-CVM survey response to obtain more precise willingness to pay (WTP) estimate. Results from our preferred model showed that average WTP was estimated to be USH14184.538 ($4.728) per household as an entry fee. This estimate was similar to WTP estimates obtained from alternative models in the sense that the later lie within 95% confidence intervals of the former. Our results generally confirm that there is statistically significant welfare benefit to be derived from urban parks, lending supports to commonly held view that provision of urban open spaces in cities of developing countries offers significant welfare benefit to the city residents.