There is solid scienti c evidence predicting that a large part of the developing world will
su er a greater incidence of extreme weather events, which may increase the incidence of displacement
migration. We draw on the new economics of migration to model migration decisions
of smallholder and rain-dependent farm households in rural Ethiopia and investigate both the
ex-ante and ex-post impacts of climate variables. Using detailed household survey panel data
matched with rainfall data, we show that weather variability - measured by the coecient of