Wood trade responses to ecological rehabilitation program: evidence from China's new logging ban in natural forests

This study examines the wood trade in response to China's new logging ban policy in natural forests (LBNF). Our identification is based on a triple-difference (DDD) strategy, in which the variations in the staggered policy implementation with region and time, together with the different trade responses between forest products, are jointly exploited. Our estimates show that the LBNF simulates an additional solid wood import by 15.2%, while the wood export and trade in other wood-related products were not affected. Heterogeneous analyses reveal that the growth in wood imports is mainly from low-income countries with less stable trade relations with China, which indicates a very limited potential for the future global market and the rising risk of China's wood supply. Unlike the generally optimistic forecasts in previous studies, our findings update the expectation under the new policy shock and restate more practical actions to promote domestic wood supply in China.