Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks
This paper investigates the uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of the oil market fundamental shocks, namely supply, aggregate demand and oil-specific demand shocks. We do so by first proposing a novel oil uncertainty index that is measured by the stochastic volatility of the unpredictable component of oil prices. We then employ a nonlinear model and find that the all reactions of oil production, real price of oil, and global economic activity to the structural shocks are regime-dependent.