This research project will contribute to sustainability and poverty reduction agenda as SLM practices can enable farmers to become resilient to climate change by improving ecosystem services and functions, increasing agricultural productivity and enhancing food security. Such practices could also help mitigate climate change which is an important added advantage.
Ethiopia’s GDP is closely associated with the performance of its rainfed agriculture which is based on small holder farmers. Partly because of this, land degradation is a very important problem which is expected to be accelerated by climate change. Historically, rainfall variability and associated droughts have been major causes of food shortage and famine in Ethiopia. Catastrophic hydrological events such as droughts and floods have reduced Ethiopia’s economic growth by more than a third and the frequency of droughts has increased over the past few decades, especially in the lowlands. Increased temperature and changes in precipitation are expected to reduce agricultural production. Given these discouraging prospects, identification of effective adaptation strategies is vital to support the yields of food crops and food security. While the importance of adaptation is widely accepted, our understanding on joint adoption of a combination of adaptation strategies and their economic implications are still quite weak.
In this research proposal we propose to investigate the potential role of a combination of sustainable land management(SLM) practices as an adaptation strategy. Following Di Falco and Veronesi (2012) we will analyse the impact of various combination of SLM strategies on farms’ productivity and revenues. This allows us to understand what SLM strategies may deliver the best payoff. We will also consider the dynamics of the problem. The SLM stratigies that may be considred in this research project include stone and soil bunds, change in crop varieties, intercropping and agroforestry.
The basic premise of this research is that a possible way to understand the role of adaptation is to study farmers’ mitigating responses to impacts of changes to date. Adaptation to changing climatic conditions is not, in fact, a new process. Thus, understanding the impacts of past adaptation can help us gauge the importance of these strategies in the face of future climate change. In addition, a farm level perspective can be particularly useful to inform us of the barriers and drivers behind the different adaptation strategies.
Therefore, the specific objectives of the project are to:
- Analyze the factors motivating the adoption of a combination of SLM strategies
- Evaluate the implications of various combinations of SLM adaptation strategies on productivity and farm income in smallholder farming system
- Identify a combination of SLM strategies that provide the best pay off while mitigating environmental stresses.
The analysis will be conducted in Ethiopia using existing panel household survey data as well as weather and climate data collected by EfD Ethiopia and other partners. We will also explore possibilities of using data collected by CIMMYT.
Our analysis will be based on a random utility framework to model multiple adaptation choices and impacts of various combinations of these choices. Following Di Falco et al (2011), Di Falco and Veronesi (2012), and Teklewold et al (2012) a multinomial endogenous switching regression (MLESR) framework will be used to account for selection bias. This framework acknowledges the interaction among alternative strategies in addition to allowing us to control for selection bias. In the first stage, factors motivating farmer’s choice of a combination of SLM strategies will be analyzed using a multinomial logit model. In the second stage, the average treatment effects on the treated and on the untreated will be evaluated in counterfactual and actual scenarios using a MLESR.
One discussion paper and one research brief will be produced from this project. The research output will be presented at a workshop and it will also be disseminated in various ways as part of the dissemination strategy of the EfD center in Ethiopia (EEPFE).
