Projection of Timber Supply and Demand Trends in China Based on an Econometric Model

This study provides an overview and analysis of China’s timber market trends over the last two decades, along with projections to the year 2020.

An econometric model (simultaneous equations regression) is applied to estimate China’s timber supply and demand. Key variables influencing China’s timber market are identified. Corresponding coefficients are estimated and can be applied to other studies and sophisticated timber market models. Results show that timber supply in China increases at a slightly higher rate than timber demand, but timber consumption is projected to triple between 2008 and 2020, which will result in significant growth of timber imports (also nearly tripling by 2020).