Poverty, Inequality and Social Protection Programs in Africa: Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Since the start of the new millennium, economic growth in Africa has been modestly rapid and sustained over long period with average real GDP growth hovering around 5% though with significant variations across countries and subregions. It is also important to note that growth volatility has been inherent in the growth process in the last two decades undermining its quality for inclusiveness and enhancing its fragility. The median long-term trend of GDP growth has been upwards between 1990 and 2018. On the other hand, volatility has been also significant with positive shocks dominating the first decade of 2000 partly due to the commodity price supercycle1. The sudden and long-drawn fall in commodity prices resulted in a significant negative shock particularly for the period 2013–2019 which was further compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Hence, growth in the past 8 years has been slow and intermittent.

Several studies have shown that growth volatility or shocks could be harmful to long-term growth, increases inequality and hence exacerbates poverty conditions2. It would be important to revisit the growth dynamics in Africa to identify policy options that could unleash rapid and sustained growth whose benefits reach a large segment of the population and social groups. The high rate of labor force growth in many African countries and the rapid urbanization rates could pose a significant challenge if the current growth pattern persists3. In the early 2000, UNECA (1999) estimated that Africa would need an average of 7% growth in real GDP sustained over a long period to reduce extreme poverty significantly. This expectation still seems valid if Africa is to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030.

Dianah Ngui, Njuguna Ndung'u, Abebe Shimeles

EfD Authors

Ngui , Dianah

Sustainable Development Goals

No Poverty

Reduced Inequalities