Rekyleffekter och utformning av styrmedel "Rebound effects and design of policy instruments"

According to our assessment, it was the measures in the cases Major green tax switching and A cap on emissions from private travel that had the greatest primary effect, that is, reduced greenhouse gas emissions mostly as a direct result of the measure. The measures in the case of Aviation tax were considered to have the least primary effect – mainly due to the currently low tax level. All cases were considered to cause rebound effects, and often to a significant degree. The case Increased working from home in its current form was considered to cause a number of moderate rebound effects, which in combination may become significant. These include, among other things, that people in the long run change their housing patterns and that reduced commuting frees up time and resources for increased leisure travel. Increased share of electric cars reduces the driving cost per kilometer and may thus increase car travel and eroding of road surfaces. In order to assess the ultimate effectiveness of a measure, the rebound effects must be taken off the primary effect of the measure. The measures that were considered to be most effective overall were Major green tax switching and A cap on emissions from private travel (large primary effects and few rebound effects of limited magnitude). However, the analysis of the cases showed that a modified design of proposed measures and policies could often affect both the primary effect and the number and size of the rebound effects in a positive way. Of course, the measures in the case studies also have effects that do not affect greenhouse gas emissions. These side effects were also mapped in the analysis. These can be environmental, such as the fact that an increased share of electric cars has a positive effect on noise and air pollution in cities and that battery production gives rise to a number of negative environmental consequences. They can also be social, such as the fact that the increased service and welfare sector in the Major Green Tax Switching provides scope for a better wage level and working environment for large groups of people and that the increased taxation of material consumption in the same case study risks hitting low-income earners extra hard.