Mexican Rural Households’ Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

Weather shocks resulting from climate change will have negative impacts on agricultural production in most of Mexico. There is also concern that climate change will negatively affect agricultural production in California, America’s richest agricultural state. Agriculture in California as well as northern Mexico relies heavily on surface water from snowpack, which is vulnerable to climate change, and it employs a workforce that is almost entirely from rural Mexico. Agricultural households feel the direct impacts of climate change, but these impacts ripple through local economies, affecting non-farm activities and non-agricultural households, as well. Recent studies find evidence that climate change will increase migration out of rural Mexico, to Mexican cities as well as to the United States. It will accelerate the movement of people out of farm work and out of rural communities. Past studies of regional cultures, especially in Mexico, show migration and famine being associated with deteriorating environments. This results in both local regional cultural upheavals as people migrate in response to limiting resources. The governments of California and Mexico appear committed to reducing carbon emissions. Both also need to understand the vulnerability of humans and their environments to climate change and to increase the resilience of shared social and ecological systems. We are just beginning to understand the extent of households’ vulnerability, their interactions with their surrounding environment, and their potential to adapt to climate change, how these vary across regions and households, and how policies can be designed to mitigate the negative impacts and facilitate adaptation.