Global Forces of Change: Implications for Alleviating Poverty and Sustaining Forests

This chapter examines six major global forces likely to influence forests and tree-based systems and considers their implications for poverty. The global trends discussed include: (i) growth in commodity markets, (ii) climatic impacts mediated through changes in forests, (iii) trends in private and public financing, (iv) technological advances and interconnectivity, (v) global socio-political movements, and (vi) emerging infectious diseases. These trends bring both opportunities and risks to the forest-reliant poor. In a business-as-usual scenario, the cumulative risks posed by global forces, in conjunction with limited rights, resources and skills required to prosper from global changes, are likely to place poor and transient poor households under additional stress. Global forces will also affect the non-poor, who may be able to better adapt to these changes. The chapter concludes with a discussion on how levers to better manage forests, combined with supportive conditions, can contribute to a different and more prosperous future for forests and people