Can LNG be replaced with Liquid Bio-Methane (LBM) in shipping?

As per today (2021), in total some 500 TWh bunker fuel is consumed within the shipping sector annually within EU waters and approximately 25 TWh of this (5%) is LNG (Liquefied natural gas). The fleet of LNG fueled vessels has grown steadily since the first vessels were introduced around year 2000. Predictions and scenarios indicate that in a couple of years, it is likely that around 15 % of all bunker fuels consumed in shipping will be LNG. Through detailed analyses of present and planned production capacity combined with scenarios built for future potential bio- and electro-methane production, a possibility to replace large amounts of LNG in shipping can be seen from a Swedish perspective. In total, the analysis shows a maximum scenario for LBM production (Liquefied Bio Methane) in Sweden year 2045 of nearly 30 TWh annually. This potential includes electro-methane production based on carbon dioxide that is naturally formed during the biogas digestion production process. All production, of methane being assessed as potential, is assessed to be based on sustainable substrates and sustainably produced. This report shows that it could be possible to replace fossil LNG as a fuel in shipping with renewable LBM at a large scale from a Swedish perspective. The total bunkering of ships in Sweden are around 25 TWh per year, varies over time, and is dependant not only on which ships that calls Swedish ports but also with the market competition with bunker suppliers in other countries. Should 15% of that fuel be LNG, it would be some 4 TWh LNG that could be interesting to switch towards renewable LBM.