Press release from Environmental Economics Policy Forum for Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 2011-07-20
Even if the mixed crop-livestock farming is a dominant farming style in Ethiopia, most of the studies on climate change, at least in the context of Ethiopia, have looked at vulnerability to, impact of, and adaptation options to climate change with emphasis only on crop agriculture and disregarding the role of livestock. This is why researchers Dr. Zenebe Gebreegziabher, Ato Meseret Molla, and Dr. Alemu Mekonnen try to analyze impact of climate change on agriculture inclusive of livestock production. Results show that climate change as captured by increasing temperature and increasing/decreasing rainfall are damaging to both agricultural activities.
Mr. Meseret Molla paper presentation
The fact that agriculture is largely traditional and rain fed, and weather conditions play an important role makes the issue of climate change of particular importance for Ethiopia. The dimensions of climate change that need to be considered are also diverse. For example, how would external perturbations such as climate change affect crop and livestock production? How would this, in turn, affect Ethiopia’s agricultural productivity and food security situation?
To answer these questions, the authors attempted to assess the impact of climate change on the net revenue of crop, livestock, and agriculture as a whole, in the context of Ethiopia, using the Ricardian model. Specifically, these annual net revenues were regressed on climate, socio-
economic, and soil variables. The regression results are then applied to possible future climates
scenarios.
Their analysis indicated that a one degree Celsius increase in annual temperature will lead to a
change of -3127.91 birr in crop net revenue, of 142 birr in livestock net revenue and of 694 birr
in net revenue from agriculture as a whole. Similarly, a 1mm increase in precipitation per month
will lead to a gain of 147.53 birr in crop net revenue but a loss of 47.01 birr and 305.13 birr in
livestock net revenue and net revenue from agriculture as a whole, respectively.
Their results suggest that, it is not only crop farming but also livestock farming that will be
affected by climate change. Therefore, policies should be geared towards development and
introduction of new crops that are more appropriate to hot and dry conditions that will give
farmers hand to adapt to harsh climatic environment; encouraging profitable micro-irrigation
system that will lessen the effects of climate vulnerability on crop agriculture; as well as
providing meteorological information and suitable access to credit that will also likely help
farmers to adapt.
As regards to livestock agriculture, important issues of policy consideration are: strengthening
local breeds which easily adapt to local climatic stress and feed sources. In addition, local
genetics should be improved into more heat and disease-tolerant breeds through cross-breeding.
Similarly, new crops that are suitable in hot and dry conditions should be identified.
Furthermore, better understanding of the causes and impacts of climate change on livestock,
development of new breeds and genetic types, improved animal health, and improved water and
soil management-development of science and technology are important.
The research received funding from Sida, the Swedish International Development Cooperation
Agency.
Time and place for public presentation:
09:00 am on Wednesday 20 July 2011 in Jupiter International Hotel, Cazanchis area, Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia.
Title of the research:
Crop-Livestock Inter-linkages and Climate Change Implications on Ethiopia’s Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach
More information Contact: Zenebe GebreEgziabher, telephone +251 (0) 11 553 86 32, email
zenebeg2002@yahoo.com
Co-authors:
Alemu Mekonnen, telephone+251 (0) 11 553 86 32, email alemu_m2004@yahoo.com
Mesert Molla, email mesenana_03@yahoo.com
Press officer:
Tsehay A. Hailemichael, telephone +251 (0) 11 553 86 32, email tsehayata@gmail.com
Presentation