Targeted Scenario Analysis: A New Approach to Capturing and Presenting Ecosystem Service Values for Decision Making

In this guidebook, EfD Central America Director and Senior Research Fellow Francisco Alpizar together with Andrew Bovarnick provide a step-by-step introduction to Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA), an innovative analytical approach, developed by UNDP that captures and presents the value of ecosystem services within decision making, to help make the business case for sustainable policy and investment choices.

This guidebook discusses the five steps that comprise a TSA. These steps include:

1. Defining the purpose and scope of the analysis (chapter 2)
2. Defining the BAU baseline and SEM intervention (chapter 3)
3. Selecting criteria and indicators (chapter 4)
4. Constructing the BAU and SEM scenarios (chapter 5)
5. Making an informed policy or management recommendation (chapter 6)