Ogada, Maurice Juma, Wilfred Nyangena and Mahmud Yesuf. 2009. “Production Risk and Farm Technology Adoption in Rain-Fed, Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya.” EfD Discussion Paper 09.
Poor Kenyan farmers in rain-fed, risky environments are reluctant to adopt new technologies with potential production gain because of enormous downside risks.
The authors looked at the effects of production risk on farm technology adoption using plot-level data and computed the mean and production risk factors using a moment-based approach and a pseudo-fixed effect probit model to determine the effects of production risk and farm variables on technology adoption decisions. They show that productivity gains are necessary, but not sufficient to attract farmers to adopt new agricultural technologies.