The project estimate to what extent migration movements within a country are explained by occurrence of extreme weather events in Guatemala.
Guatemala is country that has been continuously hit by extreme weather events. But more importantly, the intensity of precipitation is expected to increase significantly under most Climate Change scenarios. While one measure of extreme events, as precipitation intensity in a given month, might affect one area’s migration outcomes, as duration of the event even if it is mild, might affect more strongly other areas. This type of analysis has not been explored in the region. From the socioeconomic perspective, this is important in terms of the places of origin that have been affected but also in terms of those receiving the migration flows. These will affect wages, housing prices and other labor market outcomes and quality of life in general. The objective of the project “Migration as an adaptation strategy: analyzing the effects of extreme weather events on local migration in Guatemala’’ is to estimate to what extent migration movements within a country are explained by occurrence of extreme weather events in Guatemala.