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2015-10-12 | project

Building a Forest Sector Model for China: Analysis of Domestic and International Impact of Forest Policy Change

The Objectives of this project are two folds.  One is to establish the Spatial Equilibrium Model (SEM) for China’s domestic wood product markets that links domestic and international policy changes to demand, supply and trade of forest products in China. The other is to make forecast of forest products trade (including changes in demand, supply, imports and exports) in China, triggered by potential policy changes such as the ending of the “Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP)”, implementation of the “Collective Forest Tenure Reform” and “Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP)”.  China’s policy makers and international community will be better informed with policy assessment tool like this.

 

Forecast and analytical results will support works of the Department of Planning and Investment, State Forestry Administration, which is responsible for addressing development planning and investment decision in forest sector.

The model can be used to make forecast of forest products trade (including changes in demand, supply, imports and exports) in China, triggered by potential policy changes such as the ending of the “Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP)”, implementation of the “Collective Forest Tenure Reform” and “Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP)”.  These forecast and analyses will inform Chinese government and international organizations of the potential impacts and trade-offs of different policy options, and help them to develop more effective and efficient policy frameworks which are beneficial to sustainable forest management both in China and around the world.